Hey everyone! Welcome to this week’s forex forecast for the week ending October 1st, 2021. I’m TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I’ll be looking at USDCHF, EURUSD, EURAUD & USDCAD.
I usually look at Gold every week as part of this Weekly Forex Forecast series, however I have done a deep dive article on Friday, click the link here to take a look if you’re interested in my outlook on Gold.
Price has formed a rising wedge chart pattern in the medium term. We can see bulls were firmly rejected at the resistive trend line last week and is now heading towards the supportive trend line for a possible breakout. If we see continued USD strength like last week, we will likely see price reverse soon and once again head for new highs in the wedge. With upcoming NFP news, if we instead see negative outcomes for the USD and a rise in unemployment, we could see price break out of this wedge and likely head towards the bullish order block at 0.90 formed from the weekly timeframe.
Price has closed below the channel’s bottom in this descending channel below the 1.16 key horizontal level. We will likely see price enter the channel once more and retrace the bearish move it made last week. Service sector PMIS for Italy and Spain, France, Germany and the Eurozone are due out on Tuesday. The German economy will be in the spotlight as we have factory orders, industrial production and trade data rolling out throughout the week. Remember, a positive result for NFP on Friday will push prices lower.
Price has formed a key horizontal level in the medium term at 1.59, where we are seeing price is now nearing once again, forming a head and shoulders pattern with this being the neckline. Look out for a break and retest of this support level, to see if price confirms it as new resistance, and if so it’s likely we’ll head towards the next key levels such as 1.57 where we have seen price act as both resistance and support in the past at the ascending triangle pattern.
Price is forming an ascending triangle pattern with resistance holding just above around 1.28. Currently, we see price near the supportive trend line, and we’re now looking out for price action confirmations of a rejection to catch a potential reversal to the top. It’s likely we’ll still see consolidation continue below the resistance, as we’re still pretty wide to closing the gap.